Thrive Economics, LLC

Economic analysis and insights
to guide housing strategies

Rigorous, actionable research and analysis to address the housing supply and affordability crisis through innovative data, financing, and policy tools.

PrincipalLuke Teater
Based inColorado
FocusHousing · Land · Finance

New lenses. Better levers.

Luke Teater
Member: AEA · NABE · DABE · ULI Colorado

Luke Teater is an applied housing economist and the principal of Thrive Economics. His work integrates policy analysis with economic, demographic, and administrative data to deliver actionable insights on housing supply, affordability, and the regulatory and financial barriers and incentives that shape local housing markets.

Luke helped design the financing architecture behind Colorado's Proposition 123 — building tools that don't just spend public money but multiply it, by targeting state dollars at the gaps in project capital stacks where they can best catalyze private investment. In its first two years, Prop 123's financing tools have leveraged state funds at a nearly 8:1 ratio, unlocking $2.3 billion in total housing investment and financing over 7,200 new affordable homes.

Previously, Luke served as Chief Economist and Deputy Director for Tax and Economic Development of the Colorado Office of State Planning and Budgeting under Governor Polis, where he led production of the state's quarterly economic and revenue forecasts, chaired the Governor's Revenue and Economic Advisory Committee, and advised on major fiscal and economic policy — including Colorado's COVID-19 economic response. Before state government, he analyzed credit risk and subsidy costs for federal lending programs in housing and economic development — working with clients including HUD, FHFA, and the Department of Energy — and led a high-profile engagement at the U.S. Treasury forecasting all federal revenues, expenditures, and financing needs during the 2012 federal debt limit negotiations. He also lived in Kolkata, India, for three years, where he founded a social enterprise.

Luke's research spans housing and land economics, real estate finance, land use and zoning, property taxation, and the interaction between local market regulations, incentives, and housing affordability. He collaborates with academic researchers, policy organizations, and government agencies to produce data-driven research and analysis that informs and shapes housing policy debates.

Education

MBA — University of Colorado Boulder Leeds School of Business.
BA — University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Government Experience

Five years in the Colorado Governor's Office including as Chief Economist. Ten years' experience consulting for federal, state, and local government agencies.

What I do

01

Applied Housing Research & Data Analysis

Rigorous, timely research on housing markets, rents, construction trends, and development feasibility — integrating economic, demographic, and spatial data to deliver insight.

02

Housing Policy Design

Designing legislation, ballot measures, and financing mechanisms that expand housing supply and reduce barriers to access. From concept through passage and implementation — including affordable housing finance, zoning reform, and innovative public investment structures.

03

Land Use & Zoning Reform

Analysis and advocacy for evidence-based zoning reform: parking mandates, lot size minimums, density restrictions, and transit-oriented development standards. Coordinated fundraising for the Colorado Zoning Atlas, supporting the data infrastructure that makes reform possible.

04

Land & Property Taxation

Research and policy development on land value taxation and property tax reform as tools for encouraging development, capturing the value of public infrastructure investment, and improving housing affordability.

05

Project Feasibility & Finance

Financial modeling, capital stack design, and feasibility analysis for affordable, mixed-income, and market-rate housing development. Experience with LIHTC, public equity, tax-exempt bonds, and creative deal structures — evaluating project viability across different policy, market, and financing conditions.

06

Speaking & Presentations

Presenting research findings, providing expert testimony, and participating in public forums on housing policy. Experienced communicating complex economic analysis to diverse audiences — from legislative committees and industry conferences to local advocacy organizations and media.

Research & impact

ResearchHousing Forward Colorado

Denver's Housing Construction Boom Has Reduced Rents, Especially for Lower-Income Renters

Analysis of 851 Denver-area apartment buildings demonstrating that new housing supply reduces rents across all market segments, with the largest rent declines — nearly 5x the rate — in the most affordable buildings. Co-authored with Matt Frommer at SWEEP.

ResearchDU / Terner Labs

Parking Minimums and Housing Production in Denver

Coordinated the inaugural application of Terner Labs' Housing Policy Simulator to Denver, liaising among Terner Labs, DU faculty across the Burns School, RMLUI, and Scrivner Institute, and local developers to validate model assumptions and co-author research on the housing supply impact of eliminating minimum parking requirements.

Policy ResearchSchalkenbach Foundation

Primer on Land Value Tax for the Colorado Commission on Property Tax

Comprehensive analysis of how shifting from traditional property taxes to land value taxation would affect development incentives, residential tax bills, and rents in Colorado. Co-authored with Stephen Hoskins at the Progress and Poverty Institute.

Policy DesignState of Colorado

Colorado Proposition 123 — Affordable Housing Financing Fund

Co-authored and helped design the state's landmark affordable housing ballot measure, creating a dedicated funding stream, a unique state equity investment fund, a Tenant Equity Vehicle, and tools to expand modular capacity, accelerate permitting, and incentivize local land use reform.

AdvisoryVarious clients

Additional Projects

Colorado Zoning Atlas fundraising and development coordination. MIHA project financing and capital stack design. Denver Measure 2R advisory. YIGBY project feasibility modeling. Denver housing needs estimates and affordable housing strategy. Revolving construction loan fund design. Development feasibility analysis for statewide land use legislation.

Select Recent Publications and Presentations

I publish applied research on housing economics and policy, present findings to policymakers and industry groups, and contribute to interdisciplinary efforts aimed at understanding and addressing the housing supply and affordability crisis.

Housing Supply & Rents Zoning Reform Land Value Taxation Affordable Housing Finance Property Tax Policy Development Feasibility Policy Simulation Parking Reform
2025

Denver's Housing Construction Boom Has Reduced Rents, Especially for Lower-Income Renters

with Matt Frommer
Housing Forward CO
2025

Examining Relationships between Eliminating Parking Minimums and New Housing Construction

with Casey, Chavez-Norgaard, Daggett, Dehnow, Shah
White paper
2025

Unpacking Lakewood, Colorado's Housing Affordability Crisis

with Matt Frommer
Blog post
2025

Data Frontiers: Emerging Tools to Support Policy Development

RMLUI Conference
2025

Land Value Taxes: Turning Property Taxes into a Tool for Reinvestment

YIMBY Denver / PPI
2024

Primer on Land Value Tax for the Colorado Commission on Property Taxation

with Stephen Hoskins
Schalkenbach / Thrive
2024

Financing Housing to Create Access

RMLUI Conference

Research & analysis, delivered

Let's work together

I work with state and local governments, research institutions, advocacy organizations, and mission-aligned private sector clients on housing economics and policy challenges. Whether you're designing policy, evaluating a program or market, or building the evidence base for reform — I'd welcome the conversation.

LocationDenver, Colorado
AEA · NABE · DABE · ULI Colorado